Morocco: How will pension increases affect the social security fund deficit?

The increase expected to benefit private sector retirees in Morocco involved in the National Social Security Fund (CNSS) starting in January 2010 is approximately 528 million dirhams annually, as a result of a 5 percent increase in their pensions, ranging from 100 to 210 dirhams.

"Hespress" website revealed that an increase of 5 percent would have cost 693 million dirhams annually. However, a comprehensive increase of 100 percent that will cost 585 million dirhams.

Under the increase of 5 per cent, the Fund will face its first total deficit, starting in 2021 by about 67 million dirhams, and the deficit will continue to worsen continuously after that to reach 2.6 billion dirhams.

According to the Fund’s expectations, for the period from 2017 to 2026, the rate of growth of the contribution pool will record 6 percent on average, compared to an increase in expenses of 7.8 percent and management costs by 1.8 percent, and the rate of return on reserve will be in the range of 3.4 percent.

The number of the authorized employees of the Fund is about 3.47 million subscribers at the end of the year 2018, with the minimum wage of whom representing about two thirds; while the number of authorized enterprises operating for them is estimated at approximately 234 thousand enterprises that authorize a mass wage of up to 148 billion dirhams.

Morocco faces a major crisis with regards to basic pension systems, whether for public officials or the private sector, as a number of studies show that it faces a worrying deficit and a lack of its reserves; the Moroccan Pension Fund has known a deficit for years, while other funds face the same fate within a few years.